Reviewing my actual 2024 draft board (yes, I promise)
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jwoo
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Reviewing my actual 2024 draft board (yes, I promise)
Sitting here on a rainy day thinking about how to make back the 1000 RP I spent yesterday to camp my players, and decided I am going to publish my actual board for the 2024 draft, purely because it would (hopefully) be interesting, be a good topic for debate, and maybe give some less-biased-than-usual insight/opinion on prospect valuation. There is probably a slight risk of giving up too much information on how I think about drafting, but at the same time, I think with the drafts moving into abstract territory with less historical basis, the playing field will level out more and more in terms of what we know about prospects.
Anyway — hope this will be an interesting read, sorry if I shit on anyone you drafted, but here are my actual top 29 prospects for the 2024 draft after the fact. I broke this into loose tiers where player value was about level — when I make this board I make it relative to my specific team and what we need, so there is naturally some situational discrepancy there that isn't ultimately that important.
I promise this is my honest opinion and not fake, lol, and I'm not certain any of this will age well, but I hope this is an interesting read and would also love to hear other viewpoints in terms of how people evaluate draft classes. I thought this would generally just be an interesting way to look at the class rather than just recap the picks, and also I just love drafting/the strategy behind it. I also waste a lot of time on this, lol.
Tier 1
1. Reed Sheppard (selected 1st by BOS)
2. Collin Murray-Boyles (selected 2nd by TOR)
I started making this board from the perspective of "which prospects have a favorable chance to change the arc of my current roster." As I dug through the class, there were only two guys I felt confident in, and I valued them somewhat similarly. That led to my decision to trade up to 2 with Jesse. Basically, I think Sheppard has a pretty strong chance of being a good long-term starting point guard who does all the stuff you want. Murray-Boyles' notes read like he was built with care by Ashes — he's stocky with the only real issue looking like possible TOs/inefficiency and he had the added benefit of being 19 with A potential.
Both these guys played roles that I wasn't sure how else to easily fill on my roster and seemed to be on a shorter-term pathway to contributing positively than anyone else, so while this draft was pretty flat, I felt like they were the two best prospects.
Tier 2
3. Stephon Castle (selected 4th by NJ)
4. Donovan Clingan (selected 3rd by HOU)
5. Kel'el Ware (selected 5th by VAN)
6. Alex Sarr (selected 7th by VAN)
This group was a bit trickier to discern, but ultimately I just grouped in the guys who looked like they had realistic starter+ upside and good potential. Castle being a bit further away and TC-reliant ultimately dropped him out of the first group for me, but I am a sucker for guys with plus positional strength and quickness who play defense — so I felt like he was a really fun developmental PG prospect.
The three bigs were a bit more interchangeable to me. I could see any of the three having the best career. Clingan seems to be the best before any TCs occur. I generally don't love the value prop of taking a defensive specialist big this high in any draft, but the adage is that you can only pick from who is available, and it did seem like all three of them were built to become starter-level players assuming reasonable development. Clingan felt like the safest pick. Ware's notes were also surprisingly really strong. Sarr has the advantage of being 19, but is a worse rebounder than the others and seemed to have a strength concern, so he was a hair behind. I think all these guys have pretty good chances to be good starters, but it's unclear how long that will take to happen.
I thought bigs ended up being one of the stronger areas of this draft class from a depth perspective. I operated under the assumption none of these guys would make it to the 8th pick (my original spot), so that was sort of where I broke this tier off as I was trying to decide what to do. Because I could only get to six names, I got antsy about selecting at 8 and ultimately traded up. Overall this tier kind of underscored the flatness of this draft class — like IRL with 2024, there weren't as many guys in the Top 10 whom you'd normally be excited about selecting in the Top 10 of an average draft.
Tier 3
7. Filip Jovic (selected 9th by DET)
8. Matas Buzelis (selected 8th by SAC)
9. Rob Dillingham (selected 14th by LAL)
10. Ron Holland (selected 12th by BOS)
11. Devin Carter (selected 15th by SAC)
12. Quinten Post (selected 18th by TOR)
13. Jared McCain (selected 10th by SAC)
When I make tiers on a board, I generally make them with the overhead question of "who will be available at my pick?" more so than straight sifting/projecting for long-term talent. This third tier ended up being all the players I wasn't secure in at No. 8, but was happy drafting at the 18th pick (I only got to 13 names, so was just hoping somebody would fall out of this group). It also wasn't a very big tier, so it was not a sure thing any of them was going to be there. The other thing is that they were pretty much all luxury players for my specific roster construction — nobody filled a huge need — so this was more about weighing upside.
The draft ended up going more or less in this direction, and was pumped that Post fell to me. This class had a lot of interesting but sort of weird/unorthodox/flawed role player prospects, and that was more or less how I constructed this part of the list: these guys all have reasonable upside to be starters or top bench players depending on development, but they all have some flaws and risk attached, too. Some of them will go to the NDL which is pretty helpful in their projection, that was something i also thought about when ranking out for a pick that was NDL-eligible at 18.
Had I not traded up I think the pick would have been Jovic — generally guys who don't play defense or board at respectable levels for their positions scare me off, but in this case, it looked like he had a really strong offensive base skillset and didn't turn the ball over that much, giving him a chance to play on the wing as a starter if the offense were to hit a top outcome. If he isn't efficient and doesn't develop boards, there's some real downside, too. But he seemed cool.
Buzelis I think was the most well-rounded of these guys in terms of notes and ratings. The only concerns there were how good his inside scoring is (since he has jumping) and the fact he only had B potential showing. He does seem like a pretty good bet to be a starter due to those nice ratings, and if he develops blocks, he could be really good, so I get why he went one spot ahead of Jovic.
Ron Holland had the Teenager A Potential thing going for him. He also can't shoot. I strongly disliked him IRL and I have a lot of guys who aren't great shooters on the wing already, so I viewed him as duplicative even though the upside argument for him could have put him in the tier above this — I didn't want him unless there was nobody else I liked better, basically.
Matt wrote this on his questionnaire — I am also super curious to see how Dillingham pans out. I think it was a pretty big coup for the Lakers to get an A potential PG who can go to the NDL, even if he may not be built in a way that leads to FBB success in the short-term. If he develops shooting and handles, I think he'll be pretty good. if he doesn't, the D+ rebounding makes him a backup at best. These types of one-position PGs (usually small guys who don't board) are tricky value props for me in FBB. But ultimately the upside was pretty interesting and I was thinking hard about him at No. 8 as a worst-case upside throw).
Carter, Post and McCain rounded out the group and didn't have draft PROFILES**. I loved Carter IRL and think he's gonna be a good defensive game manager, also with NDL gains coming, good grab by Jesse. He might have blocks which would be spicy? Post obviously has only C potential, but we almost never see bigs enter SLN with B-/B+ scoring ratings, and the notes made it seem pretty legit. He might destroy the NDL, which is why I was really interested. If his defense can be passable and boards improve, there's a pathway for him to be a really nice bench player — at worst I think he's a fun fourth big, but I'm worried about his handles a tad. If McCain could play PG I would have had him in the tier above this, but because he can't start there, I think the ceiling for him is a bit capped with the bad boards and defense as a 1/2 combo scorer. But the ratings are quite nice.
All these guys could go on to roles in SLN with good development, wouldn't shock me if some of them outplay their spots on the list here, also I bet a couple of them will bust. But the risk/reward of this group was fun, i thought.
Tier 4
14. Melvin Ajinca (drafted 27th by TOR)
15. Tidjane Salaun (drafted 11th by MIN)
16. Jaylen Wells (drafted 13th by LAL)
17. Yves Missi (drafted 16th by NYK)
18. Nikola Topic (drafted 38th by NYK)
19. Ryan Dunn (drafted 25th by MIA)
20. Cody Williams (drafted 19th by ORL)
This group basically consisted of guys who I felt had some legitimate upside, but also some risk, with the exception of Missi who just seems like a standard useful butt and you could do worse than him. I think you could sort them in any order and feel fine about it. I doubt anyone else but me liked Ajinca this much, but had I been fucked and had to just take a guess at No. 18 rather than pick from the previous tier, he would have been the guy.
I scouted Ajinca and didn't get the stip, which seemingly requires him having a French teammate, which I have. If the stip triggers it just felt like the most fun thing to do, if it doesn't then it's just lighting the pick on fire because his scouted ratings are épouvantable. I bought back in to find out anyway because I can't help myself, but I would not have felt great picking him at 18 over these other guys. I don't think he can go to the NDL due to the hidden stip, but whatever, yolo, we're French, hope he's good.
Salaun and Williams were showing A potential, but they're both bad in real life and kind of fooled people, so I didn't want to swing on either unless they fell into this range (but liked the unknown Ajinca upside more). Wells and Dunn both seem like pretty safe players — Wells is a wing shooter, Dunn is stocky but can't score — who need really good rolls to become FBB standouts, but could be useful anyway with camps. I also really liked Topic and was trying to get back in for him in the 30s, am really surprised a teenage PG with decent potential fell to the 35th pick, think that was a coup for the Knicks and he might be nice in the NDL. He had Top 10 hype IRL before he got hurt and slipped a bit to OKC.
Anyway, these are for the most part pretty high variance players, but I liked them more than the alternatives.
Tier 5
21. Adem Bona (selected 26th by CLE)
22. Bub Carrington (selected 32nd by NJ)
23. Ajay Mitchell (selected 21st by NJ)
24. Dalton Knecht (selected 24th by CHI)
25. Jonathan Mogbo (selected 17th by CHA)
26. Tristan Da Silva (selected 22nd by VAN)
27. Terrence Shannon (selected 23rd by VAN)
28. Dillon Jones (selected 29th by PHX)
29. Pacome Dadiet (selected 30th by HOU)
These were just the other guys I had ranked as first-rounders. I didn't have a pick in this range so I was a bit lazier in solving for the 20-35 part of the draft. None of these guys excited me a ton, but also they all have good role player qualities that could theoretically pan out, especially with NDL gains and camps (they won't all pan out). All these wings felt kind of the same to me ultimately, and because I have young wings on my roster and NDL/was preparing to yeet it on Ajinca, I wasn't that interested in any of them. Bona is probably a nice fourth stringer if he pans out. Carrington is interesting IRL but looks like a total lottery ticket. This part of the draft is really just swinging and hoping, but most of the time I don't want to swing on anyone I don't really love the idea of.
I'm not gonna bother listing out the second round part of the board, but no, I didn't have Bronny in the first round just because I never would have considered him unless I had LeBron on my roster, so it was kind of a moot one there.
Anyway — I hope this was insightful and maybe useful in thinking about draft strategy, don't hold me to any of it in trade talks because value is constantly changing (one of the best things about SLN), but yeah. Hope every single player has a great TC and pans out!
Lastly, this can be my "first article" for grading (this is probably the most substantive thing I've written this season?) - if you made it this far, thanks!
Anyway — hope this will be an interesting read, sorry if I shit on anyone you drafted, but here are my actual top 29 prospects for the 2024 draft after the fact. I broke this into loose tiers where player value was about level — when I make this board I make it relative to my specific team and what we need, so there is naturally some situational discrepancy there that isn't ultimately that important.
I promise this is my honest opinion and not fake, lol, and I'm not certain any of this will age well, but I hope this is an interesting read and would also love to hear other viewpoints in terms of how people evaluate draft classes. I thought this would generally just be an interesting way to look at the class rather than just recap the picks, and also I just love drafting/the strategy behind it. I also waste a lot of time on this, lol.
Tier 1
1. Reed Sheppard (selected 1st by BOS)
2. Collin Murray-Boyles (selected 2nd by TOR)
I started making this board from the perspective of "which prospects have a favorable chance to change the arc of my current roster." As I dug through the class, there were only two guys I felt confident in, and I valued them somewhat similarly. That led to my decision to trade up to 2 with Jesse. Basically, I think Sheppard has a pretty strong chance of being a good long-term starting point guard who does all the stuff you want. Murray-Boyles' notes read like he was built with care by Ashes — he's stocky with the only real issue looking like possible TOs/inefficiency and he had the added benefit of being 19 with A potential.
Both these guys played roles that I wasn't sure how else to easily fill on my roster and seemed to be on a shorter-term pathway to contributing positively than anyone else, so while this draft was pretty flat, I felt like they were the two best prospects.
Tier 2
3. Stephon Castle (selected 4th by NJ)
4. Donovan Clingan (selected 3rd by HOU)
5. Kel'el Ware (selected 5th by VAN)
6. Alex Sarr (selected 7th by VAN)
This group was a bit trickier to discern, but ultimately I just grouped in the guys who looked like they had realistic starter+ upside and good potential. Castle being a bit further away and TC-reliant ultimately dropped him out of the first group for me, but I am a sucker for guys with plus positional strength and quickness who play defense — so I felt like he was a really fun developmental PG prospect.
The three bigs were a bit more interchangeable to me. I could see any of the three having the best career. Clingan seems to be the best before any TCs occur. I generally don't love the value prop of taking a defensive specialist big this high in any draft, but the adage is that you can only pick from who is available, and it did seem like all three of them were built to become starter-level players assuming reasonable development. Clingan felt like the safest pick. Ware's notes were also surprisingly really strong. Sarr has the advantage of being 19, but is a worse rebounder than the others and seemed to have a strength concern, so he was a hair behind. I think all these guys have pretty good chances to be good starters, but it's unclear how long that will take to happen.
I thought bigs ended up being one of the stronger areas of this draft class from a depth perspective. I operated under the assumption none of these guys would make it to the 8th pick (my original spot), so that was sort of where I broke this tier off as I was trying to decide what to do. Because I could only get to six names, I got antsy about selecting at 8 and ultimately traded up. Overall this tier kind of underscored the flatness of this draft class — like IRL with 2024, there weren't as many guys in the Top 10 whom you'd normally be excited about selecting in the Top 10 of an average draft.
Tier 3
7. Filip Jovic (selected 9th by DET)
8. Matas Buzelis (selected 8th by SAC)
9. Rob Dillingham (selected 14th by LAL)
10. Ron Holland (selected 12th by BOS)
11. Devin Carter (selected 15th by SAC)
12. Quinten Post (selected 18th by TOR)
13. Jared McCain (selected 10th by SAC)
When I make tiers on a board, I generally make them with the overhead question of "who will be available at my pick?" more so than straight sifting/projecting for long-term talent. This third tier ended up being all the players I wasn't secure in at No. 8, but was happy drafting at the 18th pick (I only got to 13 names, so was just hoping somebody would fall out of this group). It also wasn't a very big tier, so it was not a sure thing any of them was going to be there. The other thing is that they were pretty much all luxury players for my specific roster construction — nobody filled a huge need — so this was more about weighing upside.
The draft ended up going more or less in this direction, and was pumped that Post fell to me. This class had a lot of interesting but sort of weird/unorthodox/flawed role player prospects, and that was more or less how I constructed this part of the list: these guys all have reasonable upside to be starters or top bench players depending on development, but they all have some flaws and risk attached, too. Some of them will go to the NDL which is pretty helpful in their projection, that was something i also thought about when ranking out for a pick that was NDL-eligible at 18.
Had I not traded up I think the pick would have been Jovic — generally guys who don't play defense or board at respectable levels for their positions scare me off, but in this case, it looked like he had a really strong offensive base skillset and didn't turn the ball over that much, giving him a chance to play on the wing as a starter if the offense were to hit a top outcome. If he isn't efficient and doesn't develop boards, there's some real downside, too. But he seemed cool.
Buzelis I think was the most well-rounded of these guys in terms of notes and ratings. The only concerns there were how good his inside scoring is (since he has jumping) and the fact he only had B potential showing. He does seem like a pretty good bet to be a starter due to those nice ratings, and if he develops blocks, he could be really good, so I get why he went one spot ahead of Jovic.
Ron Holland had the Teenager A Potential thing going for him. He also can't shoot. I strongly disliked him IRL and I have a lot of guys who aren't great shooters on the wing already, so I viewed him as duplicative even though the upside argument for him could have put him in the tier above this — I didn't want him unless there was nobody else I liked better, basically.
Matt wrote this on his questionnaire — I am also super curious to see how Dillingham pans out. I think it was a pretty big coup for the Lakers to get an A potential PG who can go to the NDL, even if he may not be built in a way that leads to FBB success in the short-term. If he develops shooting and handles, I think he'll be pretty good. if he doesn't, the D+ rebounding makes him a backup at best. These types of one-position PGs (usually small guys who don't board) are tricky value props for me in FBB. But ultimately the upside was pretty interesting and I was thinking hard about him at No. 8 as a worst-case upside throw).
Carter, Post and McCain rounded out the group and didn't have draft PROFILES**. I loved Carter IRL and think he's gonna be a good defensive game manager, also with NDL gains coming, good grab by Jesse. He might have blocks which would be spicy? Post obviously has only C potential, but we almost never see bigs enter SLN with B-/B+ scoring ratings, and the notes made it seem pretty legit. He might destroy the NDL, which is why I was really interested. If his defense can be passable and boards improve, there's a pathway for him to be a really nice bench player — at worst I think he's a fun fourth big, but I'm worried about his handles a tad. If McCain could play PG I would have had him in the tier above this, but because he can't start there, I think the ceiling for him is a bit capped with the bad boards and defense as a 1/2 combo scorer. But the ratings are quite nice.
All these guys could go on to roles in SLN with good development, wouldn't shock me if some of them outplay their spots on the list here, also I bet a couple of them will bust. But the risk/reward of this group was fun, i thought.
Tier 4
14. Melvin Ajinca (drafted 27th by TOR)
15. Tidjane Salaun (drafted 11th by MIN)
16. Jaylen Wells (drafted 13th by LAL)
17. Yves Missi (drafted 16th by NYK)
18. Nikola Topic (drafted 38th by NYK)
19. Ryan Dunn (drafted 25th by MIA)
20. Cody Williams (drafted 19th by ORL)
This group basically consisted of guys who I felt had some legitimate upside, but also some risk, with the exception of Missi who just seems like a standard useful butt and you could do worse than him. I think you could sort them in any order and feel fine about it. I doubt anyone else but me liked Ajinca this much, but had I been fucked and had to just take a guess at No. 18 rather than pick from the previous tier, he would have been the guy.
I scouted Ajinca and didn't get the stip, which seemingly requires him having a French teammate, which I have. If the stip triggers it just felt like the most fun thing to do, if it doesn't then it's just lighting the pick on fire because his scouted ratings are épouvantable. I bought back in to find out anyway because I can't help myself, but I would not have felt great picking him at 18 over these other guys. I don't think he can go to the NDL due to the hidden stip, but whatever, yolo, we're French, hope he's good.
Salaun and Williams were showing A potential, but they're both bad in real life and kind of fooled people, so I didn't want to swing on either unless they fell into this range (but liked the unknown Ajinca upside more). Wells and Dunn both seem like pretty safe players — Wells is a wing shooter, Dunn is stocky but can't score — who need really good rolls to become FBB standouts, but could be useful anyway with camps. I also really liked Topic and was trying to get back in for him in the 30s, am really surprised a teenage PG with decent potential fell to the 35th pick, think that was a coup for the Knicks and he might be nice in the NDL. He had Top 10 hype IRL before he got hurt and slipped a bit to OKC.
Anyway, these are for the most part pretty high variance players, but I liked them more than the alternatives.
Tier 5
21. Adem Bona (selected 26th by CLE)
22. Bub Carrington (selected 32nd by NJ)
23. Ajay Mitchell (selected 21st by NJ)
24. Dalton Knecht (selected 24th by CHI)
25. Jonathan Mogbo (selected 17th by CHA)
26. Tristan Da Silva (selected 22nd by VAN)
27. Terrence Shannon (selected 23rd by VAN)
28. Dillon Jones (selected 29th by PHX)
29. Pacome Dadiet (selected 30th by HOU)
These were just the other guys I had ranked as first-rounders. I didn't have a pick in this range so I was a bit lazier in solving for the 20-35 part of the draft. None of these guys excited me a ton, but also they all have good role player qualities that could theoretically pan out, especially with NDL gains and camps (they won't all pan out). All these wings felt kind of the same to me ultimately, and because I have young wings on my roster and NDL/was preparing to yeet it on Ajinca, I wasn't that interested in any of them. Bona is probably a nice fourth stringer if he pans out. Carrington is interesting IRL but looks like a total lottery ticket. This part of the draft is really just swinging and hoping, but most of the time I don't want to swing on anyone I don't really love the idea of.
I'm not gonna bother listing out the second round part of the board, but no, I didn't have Bronny in the first round just because I never would have considered him unless I had LeBron on my roster, so it was kind of a moot one there.
Anyway — I hope this was insightful and maybe useful in thinking about draft strategy, don't hold me to any of it in trade talks because value is constantly changing (one of the best things about SLN), but yeah. Hope every single player has a great TC and pans out!
Lastly, this can be my "first article" for grading (this is probably the most substantive thing I've written this season?) - if you made it this far, thanks!
Last edited by jwoo on April 2nd, 2025, 6:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
free healthcare has never been more important
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jwoo
- General Manager
- Posts: 3782
- Joined: December 30th, 2023, 3:58 pm
- Location: French Canada
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Reviewing my actual 2024 draft board (yes, I promise)
read carefully and the answer is in here lol
free healthcare has never been more important
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GX.
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- Joined: February 19th, 2024, 10:07 am
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Reviewing my actual 2024 draft board (yes, I promise)
also was wondering who you went 6th in SLN and whyd you hate them so much and then saw it was bronny lol
2020 Bubble Boyz
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mantypas/CavsCzar
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- Joined: December 20th, 2023, 12:06 pm
Reviewing my actual 2024 draft board (yes, I promise)
21 on the JBB vs 26... straight THEFT!
FOR THE LAND - believe!
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jwoo
- General Manager
- Posts: 3782
- Joined: December 30th, 2023, 3:58 pm
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Reviewing my actual 2024 draft board (yes, I promise)
authenticity is key!!!
free healthcare has never been more important
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