Game 7 preview

[Tyler]

Nuggets vs Trailblazers

Game 1: Blazers 120 @ Nuggets 118
Game 2: Blazers 109 @ Nuggets 117
Game 3: Nuggets 124 @ Blazers 96
Game 4: Nuggets 121 @ Blazers 124
Game 5: Blazers 110 @ Nuggets 100
Game 6: Nuggets 114 @ Blazers 111

Average margin of victory = 9 points

TP’s observations: With Lauri back in the mix, I was curious to see how he would be deployed in the blazers DC, which seem to found a winning combination without him. I wasn’t sure how they would insert the finnish flavored salt/seasoning but Quady looks to have inserted him as the starting power forward, sliding Montrezl Harrell into a bench role. This was an interesting choice as Trez has become one of the best rim protectors in the league and him and Rudy have turned into the best blocking duo in the league. This move looked to pay early dividends with the Blazers stealing game 1 by 2 points on the road. Shabazz started at SF and he cooked from the floor scoring 34 points with 6 stocks and 8 boards. However, the Nuggets got some serious revenge in game 3 to reclaim the homecourt advantage.

Let’s take a closer look at game 3 because this is the only game decided by more than 10 points of the series. The Nuggets didn’t shoot the lights out of the ball, only scoring at 45% clip from the floor and 38% from beyond the arc. The game was won through the rebounding battle and clamping up the Blazers shooters. Goga and Jojo (I am Goo-goo for JoJo) combined for 31 boards and the Nuggs outrebounded the Blazers by 12. The Stocky Mountains combined for 21 stocks while limiting their turnovers to 11. This is the repeatable formula, Kipke has rode to 57 wins. The stocks, defense, shooting, and rebounding is all there but the turnovers are their achilles heel. Which brings me to my keys to the game 7:

Key for Denver: limit the turnovers. If they keep turnovers to 11 or less at home, I think they should advance to the western conference finals.

Key for Blazers: Jerian Grant volume. He has been efficient and a good game manager thus far for the series but has only eclipsed 20 points once. In an outside offense playing against the likes of Oubre, Kawhi, and Thybulle on the wing, you really need to take advantage of the poor Ricky Rubio positional defense, something Jerian has yet to be able to do in abundance. He is a great game manager but I think you need more out of him if you want to win game 7 on the road in the playoffs.

Suns vs. Warriors

Game 1: Warriors 134 @ Suns 126
Game 2: Warriors 135 @ Suns 139
Game 3: Suns 117 @ Warriors 111
Game 4: Suns 124 @ Warriors 123
Game 5: Warriors 121 @ Suns 118
Game 6: Suns 112 @ Warriors 121

Average margin of victory: 5.1 points

TP’s Observations: Phew, this series has been CLOSE!! Every game is seemingly a nail biter. For the warriors stealing game 1 came on the backs of their big 3, Jayson Tatum (he v good now), Oladipo, and Jrue Holiday combining for 100 poitns. Tatum dropped 39, going 17/25 from the floor. As a team the warriors shot 52.4% and only turned the ball over 9 times. In all honesty, you’d think that would be enough to win convincingly but the Suns had a 50 burger from the Joker and won the rebounding battle by 12. This is an all time classic game, but when the warriors shoot the ball that well from deep (63% on 12/19), they can beat anyone anywhere.

In the second sim, Marvin Bagley got injured on the tip off and didn’t record a minute of play. This resulted in Rui slotting into the starting small forward spot from the 2-5 super sub that earned him the SLN 6th Man of the Year award. The Suns were lucky to overcome the injury to steal game 4 on the road by one whole point. The key player in this game outside of the usual suspects was starting Suns shooting guard, Thaddeus Young. Young went 11 for 15 with 2 stock, no turnovers, turning in 22 points in 29 minutes of play. If the Suns can get that sort of performance from their role players, they are tough to beat.

Warriors key to winning game 7: Jayson Tatum cooking Marvin Bagley. Tatum has had a really nice series thus far and he should be able to get his when Bagley is back in the lineup as the starting SF. Bagley’s perimeter defense can’t be much to write home about as he is playing down a position. Tatum should get 25+ but if the Warriors want to win on the road, I think it will take a legacy Tatum game to do so. It is the Suns weakest position defensively and Tatum has the firepower to exploit it.

Suns key to winning game 7: Winning the rebounding battle by 7 or more boards. Marvin Bagley giveth points but he taketh rebounds from the opposition. His B rebounding coupled with Rui’s A- subbing at the 2 and 3, make the Suns the best rebounding team by differential in the league. The warriors are perfectly fine at rebounding with about an even differential but rely heavily on Zubac carrying the load. Tatum might get his but Bagley needs to outrebound the 25 year old wing in order for the Suns to advance to the WCF.

(Sorry for talking in third person but working on role playing as an analyst for article sakes).



[align=center]Bulls vs. Hawks[/align]

Game 1: Hawks 104 @ Bulls 128
Game 2:Hawks 135 @ Bulls 145
Game 3: Bulls 116 @ Hawks 123
Game 4: Bulls 113 @ Hawks 137
Game 5: Hawks 113 @ Bulls109
Game 6: Bulls 134 @ Hawks 107

Average margin of victory: 11.5 points

TP’s observation: I saved the best for last!! This series is pure electricity. A 67 win team against a bonafide dynasty in the Hawks looking to 3 peat and make their 5th straight finals. This. Is. Why. We. Play. The. Game. If this matchup doesn’t get you excited, GET THE FUCK OUTTA THE LEAGUE!!! And for some heavy hitting analysis…

While both teams have insane firepower from the 1-3, with the Bulls trotting out Luka, Rose, Porter and the Hawks turning to the Mitten, Reek and EZMoney Snipa this matchup has fireworks up and down. Both teams are very similarly constructed with outside bucket getters and a defensive big butt anchor in Nerlens for Bulls and DJ for the Hawks. Weirdly this game might be decided by the power forward slots as each player can turn in a performance in a single to alter the result. I loved the addition of Blake Griffin for the Bulls. He looks to be coming off the bench in 3-5 sub role, which he is excellent in to allow Larry (phantom signing) Sanders to create possessions for the bulls shooters. Griffin had an efficient 16 and 10 off the bench to force a game 7 in Atlanta but he is the reason why this series ain’t over with his 2/12 outing in game 5. Durant’s 47 points in game 5 also might have something to do with the Hawks going up 3-2.

Hawks Keys to win: Reek the Freak. His games this series have been quite volatile against Derick Rose’s B- defense. In a game 7 on the road, you know KD will get his, the question is who will step up an play robin? In a year where the hawks no longer have Deron Williams (future HOFer if you bring him up to Tong) and the Mitten being cut from the same cloth as Jerian Grant, you need a volume scorer to score efficiently to beat the Bulls and that has to be Tyreke. Will we get his 6/27 15 point game 1 stat line or 14/27 36 point game 2 stat line? Think that will be critical for the Hawks 3Peat chances. (don’t sue me for saying threepeat, Pat Reily).

Bulls Key to win: Adrenaline and Cortisone! I’m not sure they have one of these in their arsenal to heal Derek Rose’s 3 day stiff neck injury but my god could they use it. I would check but I need to get this article posted STAT before ashes sims. I wanted to say the x factor was Luka vs the Mitten but as Luka would say in MJ’s voice from the last dance “I had no problem with the Mitten”. Luka’s round 2 performance has been consistently great and there is no reason to think he will choke at home. Getting Rose back into the lineup on the other hand? Extremely important or else we are looking at the Lamborghini vs Reek which should allow Reek to feast against that C defense.

[jwoo]

Awesome breakdown

[Tyler]

forgive typos i didnt edit to post before ashes sims

[mantypas/CavsCzar]

everyone should talk in third person all the time

[Merv]

TP is the alter ego of PeterSun

[heimer]

excellent article

[Joe]

Grade: 875RP