Predicting What Top 2031 FAs Go For
Predicting What Top 2031 FAs Go For
This year there are more teams with substantial salary to spend in free agency than normal. There are two teams with $10–20M available (Hawks and Heat) and four teams with over $20M to spend (Bullets, Knicks, Pistons, and Portland). Note: this is before new draft pick salaries are incorporated, so these figures may be off by a couple million. I’m going to take a stab at what contracts the top free agents accept. We’ll go in order by age.
1) AJ Dybantsa (25yo)
The 2nd overall pick five years ago hasn’t bloomed into the superstar many expected, but he provided solid 6th-man minutes for the Cavs and could probably start for a lot of teams. Everyone bidding on him is hoping he’s a late-developing SF and his offense keeps improving. The Cavs already have about $70M in commitments next year, so I’m not sure if they can afford to offer a full max and still build out a competitive roster.
Prediction: Knicks poach at $12.5M, 6 years, 10% max offer. He picked them once before in free agency, maybe after spending the last six years between BYU and Cleveland he’s looking to move into a more lively city.
2) Bronny James (27yo)
Thanks to his father, Bronny Sr., this guy has kept developing and found a nice role in SLN. He’s still showing scouted A potential and is very good on offense. He turns it over a bit more than you’d like, but being an above-average rebounder at the 2 makes up for it. If his defense and handles continue to improve, he’s tracking to be an all-league SLNer. The Pistons only have $25M on the books next year, so they can offer any amount, but don’t have any Bird/coring starting salary advantages.
Prediction: Pistons retain at $15M, 7 years, 6%.
3) Cade Cunningham (30yo)
He’s been 2nd-team all-league the past two seasons, putting up elite offensive numbers. He’s an above-average rebounder, gets some steals, and only averaged 2.2 turnovers per game the last two seasons. He is very good. His salary last year for the Pistons was $18.75M, so they can offer more Year 1 money than any other team.
Prediction: Pistons retain at $19M, 6 years, 0%.
4) Scottie Barnes (30yo)
One of the better small forwards in the league but still a half-step behind the elite guys. Good offense, defense, and rebounding, but not elite at any. He may be best suited for a more balanced/inside offense because of his elite jumpshot and FT rates. He’s still a starting-caliber player for every team in the league. The Trail Blazers have plenty of cap space after KAT’s retirement, so I’m guessing they’ll go big not to lose him.
Prediction: Trail Blazers retain at $18.5M, 6 years, 0%.
5) Darius Bazley (31yo)
The top rebounder available this free agency and also an elite shot-blocker. He’s the prototypical big-butt mold whose only downside is turning it over a little more than you’d like. Bigs tend to have TOs decrease as they age, so he should get some hefty offers. The Bulls have plenty of cap space and no 1st the next two years, so they’ll certainly look to keep him. Bazley made $18.75M so the Bulls will have a starting salary advantage.
Prediction: Bulls retain at $18.5M, 5 years, 3%.
6) Markelle Fultz (33yo)
A 1st-team all-league point guard who’s as good as it gets across the board. Elite offense, flat A defense, good rebounding at the 1, and manageable TOs for a point guard. He’s incredible and still showing C potential, so he may age nicely. The Rockets don’t have their 1sts the next two years, and the league can’t afford to give the Raps more lottery picks, so they need to retain this guy.
Prediction: Rockets retain at $19M, 5 years, 0%.
7) Daniel Gafford (33yo)
The sign-and-trade setup by the Pistons six years ago was questioned by a lot of the league. Boy did that contract age nicely. Gafford developed one of the largest rear ends in the league, and at $9M a year was a bargain. Now he hits free agency without any incumbent-team starting salary advantage, so he’s looking to nearly double his previous AAV. An elite rebounder, shot-blocker, and low-TO guy.
Prediction: Heat poach at $15M, 5 years, 0%.
8) Mitchell Robinson (33yo)
A very similar player to Gafford but with less positional defense. Still a great butt but shoots a tad more than desired. Consistently on the league leaderboards for rebounds and blocks, he probably profiles as the best backup 4/5 in the league and could start for most teams. The Suns will want to keep him, but it’s unclear how low they can go and still retain him.
Prediction: Hawks poach at $15M, 4 years, 5%.
Let me know if I missed anyone obvious who's also a candidate for a max because I basically copied and pasted my FA bid list
1) AJ Dybantsa (25yo)
The 2nd overall pick five years ago hasn’t bloomed into the superstar many expected, but he provided solid 6th-man minutes for the Cavs and could probably start for a lot of teams. Everyone bidding on him is hoping he’s a late-developing SF and his offense keeps improving. The Cavs already have about $70M in commitments next year, so I’m not sure if they can afford to offer a full max and still build out a competitive roster.
Prediction: Knicks poach at $12.5M, 6 years, 10% max offer. He picked them once before in free agency, maybe after spending the last six years between BYU and Cleveland he’s looking to move into a more lively city.
2) Bronny James (27yo)
Thanks to his father, Bronny Sr., this guy has kept developing and found a nice role in SLN. He’s still showing scouted A potential and is very good on offense. He turns it over a bit more than you’d like, but being an above-average rebounder at the 2 makes up for it. If his defense and handles continue to improve, he’s tracking to be an all-league SLNer. The Pistons only have $25M on the books next year, so they can offer any amount, but don’t have any Bird/coring starting salary advantages.
Prediction: Pistons retain at $15M, 7 years, 6%.
3) Cade Cunningham (30yo)
He’s been 2nd-team all-league the past two seasons, putting up elite offensive numbers. He’s an above-average rebounder, gets some steals, and only averaged 2.2 turnovers per game the last two seasons. He is very good. His salary last year for the Pistons was $18.75M, so they can offer more Year 1 money than any other team.
Prediction: Pistons retain at $19M, 6 years, 0%.
4) Scottie Barnes (30yo)
One of the better small forwards in the league but still a half-step behind the elite guys. Good offense, defense, and rebounding, but not elite at any. He may be best suited for a more balanced/inside offense because of his elite jumpshot and FT rates. He’s still a starting-caliber player for every team in the league. The Trail Blazers have plenty of cap space after KAT’s retirement, so I’m guessing they’ll go big not to lose him.
Prediction: Trail Blazers retain at $18.5M, 6 years, 0%.
5) Darius Bazley (31yo)
The top rebounder available this free agency and also an elite shot-blocker. He’s the prototypical big-butt mold whose only downside is turning it over a little more than you’d like. Bigs tend to have TOs decrease as they age, so he should get some hefty offers. The Bulls have plenty of cap space and no 1st the next two years, so they’ll certainly look to keep him. Bazley made $18.75M so the Bulls will have a starting salary advantage.
Prediction: Bulls retain at $18.5M, 5 years, 3%.
6) Markelle Fultz (33yo)
A 1st-team all-league point guard who’s as good as it gets across the board. Elite offense, flat A defense, good rebounding at the 1, and manageable TOs for a point guard. He’s incredible and still showing C potential, so he may age nicely. The Rockets don’t have their 1sts the next two years, and the league can’t afford to give the Raps more lottery picks, so they need to retain this guy.
Prediction: Rockets retain at $19M, 5 years, 0%.
7) Daniel Gafford (33yo)
The sign-and-trade setup by the Pistons six years ago was questioned by a lot of the league. Boy did that contract age nicely. Gafford developed one of the largest rear ends in the league, and at $9M a year was a bargain. Now he hits free agency without any incumbent-team starting salary advantage, so he’s looking to nearly double his previous AAV. An elite rebounder, shot-blocker, and low-TO guy.
Prediction: Heat poach at $15M, 5 years, 0%.
8) Mitchell Robinson (33yo)
A very similar player to Gafford but with less positional defense. Still a great butt but shoots a tad more than desired. Consistently on the league leaderboards for rebounds and blocks, he probably profiles as the best backup 4/5 in the league and could start for most teams. The Suns will want to keep him, but it’s unclear how low they can go and still retain him.
Prediction: Hawks poach at $15M, 4 years, 5%.
Let me know if I missed anyone obvious who's also a candidate for a max because I basically copied and pasted my FA bid list
Predicting What Top 2031 FAs Go For
Jalen Green and the RFA guys were missed. Green is due for big time bounce back offensive year but will the TOs settle down?
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Schmagel Steinbagel
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Predicting What Top 2031 FAs Go For
unfortunately we dont have 15 mil in space after factoring in the rookies
Welcome to Atlanta where the playas play
And we ride on dem thangs like ev-ery day
Big beats, hit streets, see gangstahs roamin'
And parties don't stop 'til eight in the Monin
And we ride on dem thangs like ev-ery day
Big beats, hit streets, see gangstahs roamin'
And parties don't stop 'til eight in the Monin
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mantypas/CavsCzar
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Predicting What Top 2031 FAs Go For
But also $15mm 5 years for Gafford is nutso tho. If anybody wants to offer that, they can have him and his 33 year old ass
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