2027 TC Analysis
Posted: July 14th, 2025, 12:07 pm
Back again for this year’s TC analysis.
Reminder again of how I calculate stat totals. When I refer to “TCΔ”, I count a letter grade move as 1. I do not include changes in Potential in these calcs. When I show “Stat Totals” for players, I calculate those as a sum of all letter grades, excluding potential, based on the following scale.
TC Impacts by player position, age, etc:
With Handles:
Excluding Handles:
In aggregate, across 355 total players that participated in TC, 120 gained for +180 TCΔ, 121 declined for -179 TCΔ, and the remaining 114 held flat. So in total, the league saw +1 TCΔ. Excluding handles, we saw a -8 aggregate. Note, I again do not have LeBron in the impact by Age chart, who was -3 w/ handles or -2 w/out handles at 43 year old, but he is included as data in all the other data cuts.
TC Comparison Across Years:
Looking across years, we can start to see a typical distribution of movement, both with and without Handles included. This year would appear to be a slightly better TC overall than last year, depending how you view the movement in handles, but we’re still way off from the very positive 2025 TC.
Detailed Distribution by Age Range
It’s interesting to look at impact distribution by age range, as well. Players 25 and younger really drive the bulk of positive movement, representing +90 w/ or +64 w/out handles this year. Players 26-30 generally land at about neutral (-2 w/ or -6 w/out handles) in a narrower band of +/-2. And then players 31+ drive the declines, representing -87 w/ or -66 w/out handles this season. None of this is shocking, of course, but does probably reiterate the risk of trading for players into their later years, as you can really only hope for neutral at best at age 31 or beyond. I’m not including full charts here but these distributions look very similar by across across years, which drove me to pick these age ranges.
TC Impact by teams, divisions, conferences:
With Handles:
Excluding Handles:
Similar to last season, TC gains were much more heavily weighted to the West, which saw +14 w/ or +5 w/out handles this year, led by the Pacific in particular. The East saw -13 aggregate declines, largely driven by the Atlantic.
We seem to be getting back to closer to parity in talent between the two conferences.
TC Impact by Rookie:
It was a quieter year for rookies overall. Meleek Thomas and Dylan Mingo both went +4 but otherwise the best were a slew of +2s. My Pistons were sadly the first to pick a player that went negative in TC, with JO Jr.
Reminder again of how I calculate stat totals. When I refer to “TCΔ”, I count a letter grade move as 1. I do not include changes in Potential in these calcs. When I show “Stat Totals” for players, I calculate those as a sum of all letter grades, excluding potential, based on the following scale.
TC Impacts by player position, age, etc:
With Handles:
Excluding Handles:
In aggregate, across 355 total players that participated in TC, 120 gained for +180 TCΔ, 121 declined for -179 TCΔ, and the remaining 114 held flat. So in total, the league saw +1 TCΔ. Excluding handles, we saw a -8 aggregate. Note, I again do not have LeBron in the impact by Age chart, who was -3 w/ handles or -2 w/out handles at 43 year old, but he is included as data in all the other data cuts.
TC Comparison Across Years:
Looking across years, we can start to see a typical distribution of movement, both with and without Handles included. This year would appear to be a slightly better TC overall than last year, depending how you view the movement in handles, but we’re still way off from the very positive 2025 TC.
Detailed Distribution by Age Range
It’s interesting to look at impact distribution by age range, as well. Players 25 and younger really drive the bulk of positive movement, representing +90 w/ or +64 w/out handles this year. Players 26-30 generally land at about neutral (-2 w/ or -6 w/out handles) in a narrower band of +/-2. And then players 31+ drive the declines, representing -87 w/ or -66 w/out handles this season. None of this is shocking, of course, but does probably reiterate the risk of trading for players into their later years, as you can really only hope for neutral at best at age 31 or beyond. I’m not including full charts here but these distributions look very similar by across across years, which drove me to pick these age ranges.
TC Impact by teams, divisions, conferences:
With Handles:
Excluding Handles:
Similar to last season, TC gains were much more heavily weighted to the West, which saw +14 w/ or +5 w/out handles this year, led by the Pacific in particular. The East saw -13 aggregate declines, largely driven by the Atlantic.
We seem to be getting back to closer to parity in talent between the two conferences.
TC Impact by Rookie:
It was a quieter year for rookies overall. Meleek Thomas and Dylan Mingo both went +4 but otherwise the best were a slew of +2s. My Pistons were sadly the first to pick a player that went negative in TC, with JO Jr.