TPain's House of Fun
Posted: June 26th, 2025, 5:05 pm
TPain’s House of Fun Round 1 Playoff Preview:
It has been awhile since I opened up the house but we are running low on funds until I start my new job in August so I figured I'd try to take some money off the esteemed GMs of the league. (Just kidding, thought this is a fun way to keep the league engaged especially if you are out of the playoffs and I will try to do lines for every round!) The goal is to have fun, not milk me for every dollar. If I lose more than $200, you will be witness to Catch Me if You Can 2.
***The rules: You may bet up to $10/bet, $50 wagered max per person, no parlays. Please comment your bets with you Venmo handle with your wager amount and I will settle up after the first round. ***
Orlando Magic (1) vs. Washington Bullets (2)
Line: Magic -400 Bullets +325
Over/Under games: 5.5 Under -160, Over +130
The History: Magic: 4 Bullets: 0 with an average point diff of +15.8
The Breakdown: The Magic have had the Bullets number all year as Wes pointed out on the boards. Rui has cooked the Bullets all year when his minutes are primarily dedicated to Center, while AD has played PF in each of those matchups. As a man who loves scoring bigs and has used his fair share, AD is the hardest counter to scoring bigs. He regularly bodied Joker and Ayton when we played the Bullets in the past. I think the Bullets best shot at winning is trying to get AD on Rui and praying that Ant/Maxey outscore the Magic guards. Speaking of guards, Scoot will miss this whole series so it will be interesting to see what DC Merv runs out of the gate. It likely means a larger role for Danalo Blanton as Murray runs point. This team had the front court depth to withstand a long term Zach Edey injury with Gobert/Clarke/Rui but if you had to poke a hole on this team, it would be guard depth. Another interesting note, this is the first time Marvin Bagley will be in the lineup to square up against the Bullets all season. I expect him to be the difference maker as his B+ rebounding, scoring and turnover efficiency will have a big leg up on whichever shooting guard the Bullets plug and play at the 3.
Chicago Bulls (2) vs. Atlanta Hawks (7)
Line: Bulls -400 Hawks +325
Over/Under games: 5.5 Under -160, over +130
The History: Bulls: 3 Hawks: 0, average point differentials: Bulls +19.3
The breakdown: Another pair of eastern conference division rivals square off in the postseason after a lopsided regular season dominance by the home court team. In the small sample of 3 games, Otto Porter Jr. has absolutely cooked Jonathan Kuminga on the offensive side of the floor. It would seem that the Ashes made Power Forward does not have the perimeter defense / quickness to contain OPJ, however not many defenders have been able to stop him this year. Obviously Luka, OPJ, Booker are a trio of outside shooters that ask a lot of the Hawks to handle, I do see a path to victory and it is through building the longest road or buying development cards and praying they are victory points. I kid, I kid. The Hawks are averaging a pretty egregious 14.3 turnovers thanks to Shai Haloud’s 3.6 a game. All of their guards and wings enjoy coughing it up but they also enjoy stealing it right back as this team is averaging a pretty absurd 11.8 steals a game. Low dice rolls on the turnovers, lots of steals, and winning the rebounding battle could give this team a chance against a Larry Sanders-less Bulls team. Maybe Larry Sanders will disappear from the injury list as the day goes on as he is infamous for paranormal activity in the past.
Toronto Raptors (3) vs. Detroit Pistons (6):
Line: Raptors -230, Pistons +185
Over/Under games: 5.5 over-140, under+125
The History: Raptors: 2 Pistons:2 with an average point differential of Raptors +4.75
The breakdown: A pretty even regular season when the Raptors had Amen Thompson in all 4 games makes this series more compelling than the previous two. As we all know, Amen will be icing a bulging disc all series so the gap between +8 point differential Raptors vs the Pistons at +2 is more narrow. The Pistons had a rocky start but have been surging up the Eastern Conference Standings. It seems like committing to Cade at the 2 and Tyrese at the 1 has paid dividends. The Raptors are built to stop offense first scoring guards by running Lonzo and Amen at 1-2. However, without Amen there this team is more vulnerable to Cade running rampshot and taking a turd in JWoo’s post real NBA draft relaxing weekend in New York. I am sure he will just Door Dash enough delicious food to forget about it if that’s the case. The battle in the front court is fascinating as the Mobley / Gafford / Bazley trio of bigs will be tested with the Joker / Wemby / CMB trio. WOW! That is fun and I can’t wait to pour through these box scores. Ultimately, I think Detroit’s lack of a true 3rd scoring option will limit their chances of winning four games against this really well built Raptors team but you can’t rule it out completely.
Boston Celtics (4) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (5)
Line: Boston Celtics -140, Bucks: +125
Over Under: 6.5 games Under: -190 over: +160
History: Celtics: 2 Bucks: 1 with a point differential of Celtics +4.7
The breakdown: These teams are pretty evenly matched on paper. The Celtics are +3.6 and the Bucks are +2.5, so the slightest of edges to the home team here. The Celtics revamped their squad this year sending Ja Morant and his enormous contract to Minnesota, while adding James Wiseman to hold it down at SF. Jabari Parker has been having a career year doing an absurd 37 ppg on ridiculous splits. The Celtics bugaboo is they are averaging a whooping 14.8 turnovers per a game, which is not a recipe for postseason success. They are efficient, stocky, and their starting 1-2-3 do nearly 9 turnovers a game. That high volatility could work in the Bucks favor if they are able to steal a road game early. This Bucks team suffered a Tyus Jones injury that is probably deflating their stats, but with Kyrie being shipped out last season and KP only shooting 43% from the floor, this team is missing a true offensive superstar that can go win games on the road which is why I have the Celtics favored in the end.
WESTERN CONFERENCE:
Seattle Supersonics (1) vs. Houston Rockets (8)
Line: Sonics - 350 Houston +290
Over/Under- 5.5 games Under: -240. Over: +200
History: Sonics: 3, Rockets 1 – point differential Sonics +4.75 but 3 games decided by 3 or less points.
The breakdown: Minor injuries having a significant impact on this series. Stocky Sonics will be missing Lavine for the first part of the sim and the Rockets will be without their centerpiece Joel Embiid for 4 days. This one would be a lot more interesting with the Rockets at full strength as they are the best rebounding team in the league and the sonics are vulnerable on the boards. Embiid is the heart and soul of this Rockets team so losing him for any amount of time is pretty brutal. The sonics are missing Lavine but have randomly been better without him to end the season. They are extremely stocky, doing 20 stocks a game with 9.7 blocks. High blocks will be amplified against the inside oriented Rockets so I like the Sonics to win comfortably here.
San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Portland Traiblazers (7)
Line: San Antonio Spurs -300 Portland Trailblazers +270
Over Under: 5.5 games over: +210 under: -190
The history: Spurs: 1 Trailblazers: 3 with a point differential of Blazers +5.75
The Breakdown: This is an interesting matchup when you consider the history of the Blazers having the Spurs number all year. Granted, the Spurs are piping hot since the Lebron acquisition and their one win against the Blazers was by 20 points with Lebron on the floor, all three losses came before his time at the Alamo. The Blazers have far surpassed my preseason power rankings and Simmons / Nurkic / Sochan have made more of a difference than I expected. However, the MVP should roast Killian Hayes and Jordo has the perfect answer against Shabazz in Jaden McDaniels. Lauri vs. Lebron is a fun matchup and if Lauri can get the better of it, perhaps there’s a chance the Blazers make it an interesting series. It’s been a great year for Quady to reset the tank clock and it frees him up going forward when he gets his picks back, but I think the clock strikes midnight in 4-5 games for Cinderella.
Vancouver Grizzlies (3) vs. Golden State Warriors (6)
Line: Grizzlies -140 Warriors +125
Over/Under: 6.5 games: Under: -200 over: +185
The history: Grizzlies: 2 Warriors: 2 with the point differential favoring the grizz by +1.5 on average
The breakdown: This is the closest regular season matchup that I’ve analyzed so far. 2-2 split with lots of close games. The Warriors battled injuries all season to Tatum at the start and Jrue in the middle. They’ve added Walka Blocka to the arsenal of ass and this team at full strength is a mighty feisty 6th seed. Also as I’ve broken down each conference I am starting to think the top 6 teams in the West are just as good as the top 6 teams in the East, aside from the Magic who are in a tier of their own. The Grizz have had an outstanding season while on the tank clock, adding Goga, Dyson Daniels, Jaylin Brown, and Blake Griffin to Kon Knueppel and Ke’el Ware’s young piece of ass. This team is really well rounded and does a lot of everything pretty well. I think this series will come down to who can win the battle on the glass. Goga vs Zubac is cinema. Mikal Bridges has had a breakout year and has developed into a stocky wing who also gets an efficient 25 points a game. You couple that with Jrue and Tatum, I think gives the Warriors more potent perimeter scoring. The Grizz have a lot of 20 point scorers with JB leading the trio. In order for the Grizz to make a postseason run, I think Vancouver needs him to be a guy who can get 30 points and solo carry games. I will pick an upset in this round as I think the Warriors are just hitting form and the grizz haven’t seemed to settle on a DC since their flurry of moves in the second half of the year.
Sacramento Kings (4) vs. Phoenix Suns (5)
Line: Kings -115 Suns +105
Over/Under: 6.5 games over: +120 under: -110
The history: Kings: 2 Suns: 2 with the Suns having the point differential lead of +0.5
The breakdown: It doesn’t get closer than that, folks. Two Pacific rivals square off in the first round and I think both GMs are pretty upset with their draw. The Suns have been decimated by injuries this year with Okogie missing 50 games, Mitch Robinson out the second half of the year, Okafor and MPJ missing 10+ games, etc. But they are healthy now and coming off a 6-1 final sim to leap the Blazers for the 5th seed. The one loss however was to the Kings… by a point at home. A lot of pressure will be on Okogie performing like a B+ / A scorer on offense and tick up from his small sample 44% FG& in the regular season. If Okogie shows up on offense, Fultz and Okogie should be a very tough out. This series should be tighter than an unwed Morman lady covered in seran wrap and come down to who gets lucky in the close games. The Kings post trade deadline are a totally different team than the first 90 days of the year so analyzing their team stats is a moot point. They now run a DC with Chet, Winslow, AG, Oubre, Bonga, and Lively and that 6 man rotation is about as good as any in the league. When you take into account the swiss army knives that are Winslow, AG, Chet (and even Bonga if he wants to run him off the bench), this team has a lot of ways for the most experienced GM and best coach in the league to attack his opponents. I love this Suns team at full strength but think they are one good player short of stealing this series on the road. Give me Kings in 7 and I hope I am wrong.
It has been awhile since I opened up the house but we are running low on funds until I start my new job in August so I figured I'd try to take some money off the esteemed GMs of the league. (Just kidding, thought this is a fun way to keep the league engaged especially if you are out of the playoffs and I will try to do lines for every round!) The goal is to have fun, not milk me for every dollar. If I lose more than $200, you will be witness to Catch Me if You Can 2.
***The rules: You may bet up to $10/bet, $50 wagered max per person, no parlays. Please comment your bets with you Venmo handle with your wager amount and I will settle up after the first round. ***
Orlando Magic (1) vs. Washington Bullets (2)
Line: Magic -400 Bullets +325
Over/Under games: 5.5 Under -160, Over +130
The History: Magic: 4 Bullets: 0 with an average point diff of +15.8
The Breakdown: The Magic have had the Bullets number all year as Wes pointed out on the boards. Rui has cooked the Bullets all year when his minutes are primarily dedicated to Center, while AD has played PF in each of those matchups. As a man who loves scoring bigs and has used his fair share, AD is the hardest counter to scoring bigs. He regularly bodied Joker and Ayton when we played the Bullets in the past. I think the Bullets best shot at winning is trying to get AD on Rui and praying that Ant/Maxey outscore the Magic guards. Speaking of guards, Scoot will miss this whole series so it will be interesting to see what DC Merv runs out of the gate. It likely means a larger role for Danalo Blanton as Murray runs point. This team had the front court depth to withstand a long term Zach Edey injury with Gobert/Clarke/Rui but if you had to poke a hole on this team, it would be guard depth. Another interesting note, this is the first time Marvin Bagley will be in the lineup to square up against the Bullets all season. I expect him to be the difference maker as his B+ rebounding, scoring and turnover efficiency will have a big leg up on whichever shooting guard the Bullets plug and play at the 3.
Chicago Bulls (2) vs. Atlanta Hawks (7)
Line: Bulls -400 Hawks +325
Over/Under games: 5.5 Under -160, over +130
The History: Bulls: 3 Hawks: 0, average point differentials: Bulls +19.3
The breakdown: Another pair of eastern conference division rivals square off in the postseason after a lopsided regular season dominance by the home court team. In the small sample of 3 games, Otto Porter Jr. has absolutely cooked Jonathan Kuminga on the offensive side of the floor. It would seem that the Ashes made Power Forward does not have the perimeter defense / quickness to contain OPJ, however not many defenders have been able to stop him this year. Obviously Luka, OPJ, Booker are a trio of outside shooters that ask a lot of the Hawks to handle, I do see a path to victory and it is through building the longest road or buying development cards and praying they are victory points. I kid, I kid. The Hawks are averaging a pretty egregious 14.3 turnovers thanks to Shai Haloud’s 3.6 a game. All of their guards and wings enjoy coughing it up but they also enjoy stealing it right back as this team is averaging a pretty absurd 11.8 steals a game. Low dice rolls on the turnovers, lots of steals, and winning the rebounding battle could give this team a chance against a Larry Sanders-less Bulls team. Maybe Larry Sanders will disappear from the injury list as the day goes on as he is infamous for paranormal activity in the past.
Toronto Raptors (3) vs. Detroit Pistons (6):
Line: Raptors -230, Pistons +185
Over/Under games: 5.5 over-140, under+125
The History: Raptors: 2 Pistons:2 with an average point differential of Raptors +4.75
The breakdown: A pretty even regular season when the Raptors had Amen Thompson in all 4 games makes this series more compelling than the previous two. As we all know, Amen will be icing a bulging disc all series so the gap between +8 point differential Raptors vs the Pistons at +2 is more narrow. The Pistons had a rocky start but have been surging up the Eastern Conference Standings. It seems like committing to Cade at the 2 and Tyrese at the 1 has paid dividends. The Raptors are built to stop offense first scoring guards by running Lonzo and Amen at 1-2. However, without Amen there this team is more vulnerable to Cade running rampshot and taking a turd in JWoo’s post real NBA draft relaxing weekend in New York. I am sure he will just Door Dash enough delicious food to forget about it if that’s the case. The battle in the front court is fascinating as the Mobley / Gafford / Bazley trio of bigs will be tested with the Joker / Wemby / CMB trio. WOW! That is fun and I can’t wait to pour through these box scores. Ultimately, I think Detroit’s lack of a true 3rd scoring option will limit their chances of winning four games against this really well built Raptors team but you can’t rule it out completely.
Boston Celtics (4) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (5)
Line: Boston Celtics -140, Bucks: +125
Over Under: 6.5 games Under: -190 over: +160
History: Celtics: 2 Bucks: 1 with a point differential of Celtics +4.7
The breakdown: These teams are pretty evenly matched on paper. The Celtics are +3.6 and the Bucks are +2.5, so the slightest of edges to the home team here. The Celtics revamped their squad this year sending Ja Morant and his enormous contract to Minnesota, while adding James Wiseman to hold it down at SF. Jabari Parker has been having a career year doing an absurd 37 ppg on ridiculous splits. The Celtics bugaboo is they are averaging a whooping 14.8 turnovers per a game, which is not a recipe for postseason success. They are efficient, stocky, and their starting 1-2-3 do nearly 9 turnovers a game. That high volatility could work in the Bucks favor if they are able to steal a road game early. This Bucks team suffered a Tyus Jones injury that is probably deflating their stats, but with Kyrie being shipped out last season and KP only shooting 43% from the floor, this team is missing a true offensive superstar that can go win games on the road which is why I have the Celtics favored in the end.
WESTERN CONFERENCE:
Seattle Supersonics (1) vs. Houston Rockets (8)
Line: Sonics - 350 Houston +290
Over/Under- 5.5 games Under: -240. Over: +200
History: Sonics: 3, Rockets 1 – point differential Sonics +4.75 but 3 games decided by 3 or less points.
The breakdown: Minor injuries having a significant impact on this series. Stocky Sonics will be missing Lavine for the first part of the sim and the Rockets will be without their centerpiece Joel Embiid for 4 days. This one would be a lot more interesting with the Rockets at full strength as they are the best rebounding team in the league and the sonics are vulnerable on the boards. Embiid is the heart and soul of this Rockets team so losing him for any amount of time is pretty brutal. The sonics are missing Lavine but have randomly been better without him to end the season. They are extremely stocky, doing 20 stocks a game with 9.7 blocks. High blocks will be amplified against the inside oriented Rockets so I like the Sonics to win comfortably here.
San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Portland Traiblazers (7)
Line: San Antonio Spurs -300 Portland Trailblazers +270
Over Under: 5.5 games over: +210 under: -190
The history: Spurs: 1 Trailblazers: 3 with a point differential of Blazers +5.75
The Breakdown: This is an interesting matchup when you consider the history of the Blazers having the Spurs number all year. Granted, the Spurs are piping hot since the Lebron acquisition and their one win against the Blazers was by 20 points with Lebron on the floor, all three losses came before his time at the Alamo. The Blazers have far surpassed my preseason power rankings and Simmons / Nurkic / Sochan have made more of a difference than I expected. However, the MVP should roast Killian Hayes and Jordo has the perfect answer against Shabazz in Jaden McDaniels. Lauri vs. Lebron is a fun matchup and if Lauri can get the better of it, perhaps there’s a chance the Blazers make it an interesting series. It’s been a great year for Quady to reset the tank clock and it frees him up going forward when he gets his picks back, but I think the clock strikes midnight in 4-5 games for Cinderella.
Vancouver Grizzlies (3) vs. Golden State Warriors (6)
Line: Grizzlies -140 Warriors +125
Over/Under: 6.5 games: Under: -200 over: +185
The history: Grizzlies: 2 Warriors: 2 with the point differential favoring the grizz by +1.5 on average
The breakdown: This is the closest regular season matchup that I’ve analyzed so far. 2-2 split with lots of close games. The Warriors battled injuries all season to Tatum at the start and Jrue in the middle. They’ve added Walka Blocka to the arsenal of ass and this team at full strength is a mighty feisty 6th seed. Also as I’ve broken down each conference I am starting to think the top 6 teams in the West are just as good as the top 6 teams in the East, aside from the Magic who are in a tier of their own. The Grizz have had an outstanding season while on the tank clock, adding Goga, Dyson Daniels, Jaylin Brown, and Blake Griffin to Kon Knueppel and Ke’el Ware’s young piece of ass. This team is really well rounded and does a lot of everything pretty well. I think this series will come down to who can win the battle on the glass. Goga vs Zubac is cinema. Mikal Bridges has had a breakout year and has developed into a stocky wing who also gets an efficient 25 points a game. You couple that with Jrue and Tatum, I think gives the Warriors more potent perimeter scoring. The Grizz have a lot of 20 point scorers with JB leading the trio. In order for the Grizz to make a postseason run, I think Vancouver needs him to be a guy who can get 30 points and solo carry games. I will pick an upset in this round as I think the Warriors are just hitting form and the grizz haven’t seemed to settle on a DC since their flurry of moves in the second half of the year.
Sacramento Kings (4) vs. Phoenix Suns (5)
Line: Kings -115 Suns +105
Over/Under: 6.5 games over: +120 under: -110
The history: Kings: 2 Suns: 2 with the Suns having the point differential lead of +0.5
The breakdown: It doesn’t get closer than that, folks. Two Pacific rivals square off in the first round and I think both GMs are pretty upset with their draw. The Suns have been decimated by injuries this year with Okogie missing 50 games, Mitch Robinson out the second half of the year, Okafor and MPJ missing 10+ games, etc. But they are healthy now and coming off a 6-1 final sim to leap the Blazers for the 5th seed. The one loss however was to the Kings… by a point at home. A lot of pressure will be on Okogie performing like a B+ / A scorer on offense and tick up from his small sample 44% FG& in the regular season. If Okogie shows up on offense, Fultz and Okogie should be a very tough out. This series should be tighter than an unwed Morman lady covered in seran wrap and come down to who gets lucky in the close games. The Kings post trade deadline are a totally different team than the first 90 days of the year so analyzing their team stats is a moot point. They now run a DC with Chet, Winslow, AG, Oubre, Bonga, and Lively and that 6 man rotation is about as good as any in the league. When you take into account the swiss army knives that are Winslow, AG, Chet (and even Bonga if he wants to run him off the bench), this team has a lot of ways for the most experienced GM and best coach in the league to attack his opponents. I love this Suns team at full strength but think they are one good player short of stealing this series on the road. Give me Kings in 7 and I hope I am wrong.