Differential Progression (2026 Season)
Posted: June 26th, 2025, 10:15 am
An idea i had at the beginning of the season was to track differentials throughout the season and analyze how teams find their form by playoffs and the changes in league averages as a whole.
Here are the key trends I've identified across the season:
Points Per Game (PPG) Differential:
Day 35: -0.307
Day 60: -0.155
Day 99: -0.059
Day 120: -0.014
The league is becoming more balanced offensively over time, with the average differential improving from -0.307 to nearly zero (-0.014).
Field Goal Percentage (FG%) Differential:
Day 35: -0.002
Day 60: -0.001
Day 99: -0.0
Day 120: -0.0
Three-Point Percentage (3P%) Differential:
Day 35: -0.004
Day 60: -0.003
Day 99: -0.002
Day 120: -0.001
Both shooting percentages show similar patterns of convergence toward zero, indicating more balanced offensive/defensive performance.
Rebounds Per Game (RPG) Differential:
Day 35: -0.041
Day 60: -0.021
Day 99: -0.017
Day 120: -0.01
Steals Per Game (SPG) Differential:
Day 35: -0.045
Day 60: -0.031
Day 99: -0.038
Day 120: 0.007
Turnovers Per Game (TOPG) Differential:
Day 35: 0.021
Day 60: 0.034
Day 99: 0.021
Day 120: -0.003
The main trend shows the league becoming more balanced over time, with most differentials converging toward zero by Day 120. This suggests teams are adapting and the competitive balance is improving as the season progresses. Notably, steals differential actually flipped positive by Day 120, indicating teams may have improved their defensive pressure relative to their turnover rates.
Analyzing Top 5 Teams
Key Insights from the Evolution:
Magic - The league's top offensive team:
Magic:
PPG: 14.5 → 11.4 (-3.1)
RBG: 4.6 → 6.5 (+1.9)
SPG: 1.5 → 0.6 (-0.9)
BPG: 1.2 → -0.7 (-1.9)
TOPG: -2.7 → -1.6 (+1.1)
FG%: 0.04 → 0.02 (-0.02)
Despite declining from their early-season peak, Magic maintains the highest PPG differential. They've improved rebounding significantly but lost some defensive edge (blocks and steals).
SuperSonics - The most improved team:
SuperSonics:
PPG: 7.2 → 8.6 (+1.4)
RBG: -0.7 → 0.0 (+0.7)
SPG: 0.7 → 1.0 (+0.3)
BPG: 3.7 → 4.1 (+0.4)
TOPG: -2.0 → -1.7 (+0.3)
FG%: 0.03 → 0.04 (+0.01)
SuperSonics actually improved their PPG differential over time and lead in blocks differential (+4.1), showing strong defensive presence.
Spurs - The biggest climber:
Spurs:
PPG: 4.1 → 6.7 (+2.6)
RBG: -1.3 → 2.9 (+4.2)
SPG: 2.5 → 1.6 (-0.9)
BPG: 0.6 → 0.7 (+0.1)
TOPG: -3.3 → -2.0 (+1.3)
FG%: -0.01 → 0.01 (+0.02)
Spurs showed the most dramatic improvement, gaining +2.6 in PPG differential and +4.2 in rebounding differential - the biggest rebounding improvement among all teams.
Notable Patterns:
All top PPG teams have negative TOPG differentials (fewer turnovers than opponents)
Rebounding improvements were common across most teams
Field goal percentage differentials remained relatively small but positive
Block differentials varied significantly, with SuperSonics dominating this category
The data shows these top offensive teams achieved their success through different strengths: Magic through overall offensive efficiency, SuperSonics through defensive blocks, and Spurs through dramatic rebounding improvements.
Here are the key trends I've identified across the season:
Points Per Game (PPG) Differential:
Day 35: -0.307
Day 60: -0.155
Day 99: -0.059
Day 120: -0.014
The league is becoming more balanced offensively over time, with the average differential improving from -0.307 to nearly zero (-0.014).
Field Goal Percentage (FG%) Differential:
Day 35: -0.002
Day 60: -0.001
Day 99: -0.0
Day 120: -0.0
Three-Point Percentage (3P%) Differential:
Day 35: -0.004
Day 60: -0.003
Day 99: -0.002
Day 120: -0.001
Both shooting percentages show similar patterns of convergence toward zero, indicating more balanced offensive/defensive performance.
Rebounds Per Game (RPG) Differential:
Day 35: -0.041
Day 60: -0.021
Day 99: -0.017
Day 120: -0.01
Steals Per Game (SPG) Differential:
Day 35: -0.045
Day 60: -0.031
Day 99: -0.038
Day 120: 0.007
Turnovers Per Game (TOPG) Differential:
Day 35: 0.021
Day 60: 0.034
Day 99: 0.021
Day 120: -0.003
The main trend shows the league becoming more balanced over time, with most differentials converging toward zero by Day 120. This suggests teams are adapting and the competitive balance is improving as the season progresses. Notably, steals differential actually flipped positive by Day 120, indicating teams may have improved their defensive pressure relative to their turnover rates.
Analyzing Top 5 Teams
Key Insights from the Evolution:
Magic - The league's top offensive team:
Magic:
PPG: 14.5 → 11.4 (-3.1)
RBG: 4.6 → 6.5 (+1.9)
SPG: 1.5 → 0.6 (-0.9)
BPG: 1.2 → -0.7 (-1.9)
TOPG: -2.7 → -1.6 (+1.1)
FG%: 0.04 → 0.02 (-0.02)
Despite declining from their early-season peak, Magic maintains the highest PPG differential. They've improved rebounding significantly but lost some defensive edge (blocks and steals).
SuperSonics - The most improved team:
SuperSonics:
PPG: 7.2 → 8.6 (+1.4)
RBG: -0.7 → 0.0 (+0.7)
SPG: 0.7 → 1.0 (+0.3)
BPG: 3.7 → 4.1 (+0.4)
TOPG: -2.0 → -1.7 (+0.3)
FG%: 0.03 → 0.04 (+0.01)
SuperSonics actually improved their PPG differential over time and lead in blocks differential (+4.1), showing strong defensive presence.
Spurs - The biggest climber:
Spurs:
PPG: 4.1 → 6.7 (+2.6)
RBG: -1.3 → 2.9 (+4.2)
SPG: 2.5 → 1.6 (-0.9)
BPG: 0.6 → 0.7 (+0.1)
TOPG: -3.3 → -2.0 (+1.3)
FG%: -0.01 → 0.01 (+0.02)
Spurs showed the most dramatic improvement, gaining +2.6 in PPG differential and +4.2 in rebounding differential - the biggest rebounding improvement among all teams.
Notable Patterns:
All top PPG teams have negative TOPG differentials (fewer turnovers than opponents)
Rebounding improvements were common across most teams
Field goal percentage differentials remained relatively small but positive
Block differentials varied significantly, with SuperSonics dominating this category
The data shows these top offensive teams achieved their success through different strengths: Magic through overall offensive efficiency, SuperSonics through defensive blocks, and Spurs through dramatic rebounding improvements.