Preseason Tiers / Win Projections

[quady]

Okay so last year I did that tiers article which was largely based on preseason stats with a little bit of my own judgement layered in. I'd call the stat part directionally correct, but I presented it as more of an editorial than I intended. This year I want to let you all reach your own conclusions - I'll present just the stats I used, and add a few comments.

Team	PS 1 Point Diff	PS 1 Possession Diff	PS 1 Stock Diff	PS 1 PPP	PS 1 oPPP	PS 1 PPP diff	PS 1 Season W%	PS2 Point Diff.	PS2 Possession Diff	PS2 Stock Diff	PS2 PPP	PS2 oPPP	PS2 PPP diff	PS2 Season W%	Mean PPG	Mean oPPG	Mean Point Diff.	Mean Possession Diff	Mean Stock Diff	Mean PPP	Mean oPPP	Mean PPP diff	Mean Pre Season W%	Pythagorean Win Percentage
Suns	14.80	3.36	-4.90	1.04	0.93	0.11	0.99	12.70	4.12	-1.50	1.05	0.97	0.09	0.92	125	111.25	13.75	3.74	-3.20	1.05	0.95	0.10	0.95	0.87
Hornets	6.80	4.36	2.70	1.00	0.95	0.05	0.72	18.10	3.36	5.90	1.03	0.87	0.16	1.10	122.65	110.2	12.45	3.86	4.30	1.02	0.91	0.10	0.91	0.85
Magic	8.60	-2.24	3.10	1.03	0.93	0.10	0.78	7.60	8.10	2.30	0.96	0.94	0.01	0.75	118.95	110.85	8.10	2.93	2.70	0.99	0.94	0.05	0.77	0.76
Celtics	0.60	-4.51	2.30	0.98	0.94	0.03	0.52	14.20	1.21	5.60	0.98	0.86	0.12	0.97	117.35	109.95	7.40	-1.65	3.95	0.98	0.90	0.08	0.74	0.75
Warriors	8.10	3.89	-0.70	0.99	0.95	0.04	0.77	7.20	6.98	2.50	0.97	0.94	0.02	0.74	123.65	116	7.65	5.43	0.90	0.98	0.95	0.03	0.75	0.74
Bucks	7.70	-0.08	1.00	1.02	0.97	0.05	0.75	5.30	4.24	2.00	0.97	0.94	0.03	0.67	120.9	114.4	6.50	2.08	1.50	1.00	0.96	0.04	0.71	0.71
Nuggets	9.60	2.80	1.90	1.03	0.95	0.08	0.82	1.60	5.03	1.50	0.98	1.00	-0.02	0.55	123.1	117.5	5.60	3.92	1.70	1.00	0.98	0.03	0.68	0.68
Trail Blazers	8.20	-2.43	-2.70	1.02	0.93	0.08	0.77	2.10	-1.54	-0.80	1.03	0.99	0.04	0.57	125	119.85	5.15	-1.98	-1.75	1.02	0.96	0.06	0.67	0.67
Pistons	2.20	2.94	2.20	0.91	0.92	0.00	0.57	6.80	10.06	1.40	0.97	0.97	-0.01	0.72	115.6	111.1	4.50	6.50	1.80	0.94	0.94	-0.01	0.65	0.66
Raptors	0.30	1.10	-1.20	0.96	0.98	-0.01	0.51	6.70	0.52	2.60	0.97	0.93	0.05	0.72	116.2	112.7	3.50	0.81	0.70	0.97	0.95	0.02	0.62	0.62
Mavericks	4.30	2.95	2.70	1.03	1.01	0.03	0.64	3.10	3.51	3.80	1.03	1.01	0.03	0.60	130.3	126.6	3.70	3.23	3.25	1.03	1.01	0.03	0.62	0.62
Bulls	1.50	1.77	1.70	0.99	0.98	0.01	0.55	1.00	-2.46	1.90	0.95	0.94	0.00	0.53	119.45	118.2	1.25	-0.35	1.80	0.97	0.96	0.01	0.54	0.54
Heat	-2.20	0.33	2.70	0.95	0.97	-0.02	0.43	4.10	2.31	1.80	0.97	0.93	0.03	0.64	110.95	110	0.95	1.32	2.25	0.96	0.95	0.01	0.53	0.54
Jazz	-2.20	2.33	4.10	0.91	0.93	-0.01	0.43	3.50	-2.05	2.20	0.96	0.92	0.04	0.62	110.15	109.5	0.65	0.14	3.15	0.94	0.92	0.01	0.52	0.52
Knicks	5.00	-1.04	2.00	1.03	0.97	0.06	0.66	-5.00	-1.39	1.90	0.91	0.93	-0.02	0.34	112.3	112.3	0.00	-1.22	1.95	0.97	0.95	0.02	0.50	0.50
SuperSonics	-0.60	0.75	3.50	0.95	0.95	0.00	0.48	-1.30	-5.44	1.30	0.94	0.92	0.02	0.46	112.2	113.15	-0.95	-2.34	2.40	0.94	0.93	0.01	0.47	0.47
Lakers	0.70	2.24	1.70	0.91	0.90	0.00	0.52	-2.90	-1.55	-1.90	0.94	0.96	-0.02	0.40	106.6	107.7	-1.10	0.34	-0.10	0.92	0.93	-0.01	0.46	0.46
Clippers	-4.10	0.12	0.20	0.96	1.00	-0.03	0.37	1.50	5.76	-4.30	0.99	1.01	-0.01	0.55	121.35	122.65	-1.30	2.94	-2.05	0.98	1.00	-0.02	0.46	0.46
Timberwolves	-5.70	-6.48	-7.70	0.92	0.97	-0.05	0.31	-0.20	-4.87	-4.40	0.95	0.93	0.02	0.49	107.8	110.75	-2.95	-5.68	-6.05	0.93	0.95	-0.02	0.40	0.39
Spurs	-3.80	1.96	-0.20	0.93	0.98	-0.05	0.37	-6.00	3.43	1.10	0.91	0.98	-0.07	0.30	111.85	116.75	-4.90	2.69	0.45	0.92	0.98	-0.06	0.34	0.33
Hawks	-5.30	-1.01	0.00	0.97	1.01	-0.03	0.33	-4.90	3.71	0.20	0.90	0.97	-0.07	0.34	108.75	113.85	-5.10	1.35	0.10	0.94	0.99	-0.05	0.33	0.32
Pacers	-2.30	-1.84	-0.70	0.96	0.96	0.00	0.42	-8.30	-8.58	-5.20	0.90	0.94	-0.04	0.23	110.25	115.55	-5.30	-5.21	-2.95	0.93	0.95	-0.02	0.33	0.32
Grizzlies	-2.90	-2.81	-3.20	0.97	0.99	-0.02	0.40	-10.80	-5.27	-5.00	0.93	0.99	-0.06	0.14	114.7	121.55	-6.85	-4.04	-4.10	0.95	0.99	-0.04	0.27	0.28
Kings	-2.90	-3.15	2.80	0.96	0.97	-0.01	0.40	-10.80	-8.28	-0.20	0.88	0.94	-0.06	0.14	108.35	115.2	-6.85	-5.71	1.30	0.92	0.95	-0.03	0.27	0.27
Cavaliers	-7.40	-1.54	-3.00	0.98	1.05	-0.07	0.26	-7.20	-1.65	-2.50	0.94	1.00	-0.05	0.26	112.8	120.1	-7.30	-1.60	-2.75	0.96	1.02	-0.06	0.26	0.26
Bullets	-5.90	0.78	2.50	0.91	0.96	-0.06	0.31	-10.00	-6.22	-0.40	0.94	1.00	-0.05	0.17	110.25	118.2	-7.95	-2.72	1.05	0.93	0.98	-0.05	0.24	0.24
76ers	-10.70	1.58	-5.10	0.91	1.02	-0.12	0.15	-5.70	-0.84	-4.30	0.90	0.95	-0.06	0.31	107.3	115.5	-8.20	0.37	-4.70	0.90	0.99	-0.09	0.23	0.23
Nets	-8.40	-1.22	-2.20	0.93	1.00	-0.07	0.22	-9.80	-3.45	-4.40	0.88	0.96	-0.08	0.18	103.95	113.05	-9.10	-2.34	-3.30	0.90	0.98	-0.07	0.20	0.20
Rockets	-16.90	-3.80	-5.40	0.87	1.01	-0.14	-0.06	-9.60	-3.50	-3.60	0.95	1.01	-0.05	0.18	102.9	116.15	-13.25	-3.65	-4.50	0.91	1.01	-0.10	0.06	0.12

Notes:

The Suns and Hornets are in a class by themselves. The Suns in particular do well in PS1, and they played what looks like a reasonable starting lineup in PS2. The Hornets meanwhile started PJ Dozier in PS2. My takewaway from all of this is that either PJ Dozier is either an insane hidden talent, or Jack is going to be clearly the best team when he gets a few more real players on the roster.

The Celtics has a pretty weird PS1 and 2 that graded them out very highly, but I'm not sure how representative it actually was of their talent level. The Magic similarly had a great PS overall and really stood out in PS2 playing Aaron Gordon at the 2, so I'm not totally sure how that will translate to the regular season. Also IDK who Dalano Banton is.

The Warriors look like the second best team in the West, and that's without a significant contribution from Jayson Tatum. Their frontcourt had been a limitation for a while and it looks like its gelled nicely, around Zubac as a centerpiece.

Milwaukee is primed to be pretty good, and can get to over $25mm expiring as a buyer if they want, between Nurkic, Brad Beal, and smaller pieces. I will look at RJ Barrett's line every sim because I can't help myself.

Denver went 7-6 in both sims, had a very strong point differential in the first one and basically even in the second. Guerschon Yabusele looks like a nice leftovers snag. Kawhi and Embiid are still awesome.

Wemby is good enough already that this looks like a single season tank in Toronto. I'm not sure that JWoo is going to start buying but I don't think they'll be bad enough to be a high lottery team, nor have non-prospects they can readily sell off to fall down the standings.

Dallas is going to be really good. Zinger, Chet and Mobley is such a nice frontcourt. The Chuma snipe in FA couldn't have worked out better. Hoff might be a little hesitant to add longer term money with the impending LaMelo free agency, but they have $15mm in pretty movable deals.

Another very strong preseason in Detroit, leading SLN overall in possession differential, in large part thanks to a certain former Portland Trailblazer forward. RB got great sims from Tyrese Haliburton and Jordan Hamilton, and a very turnover efficient Cade sim as well. There is also a lot of movable or semi-movable money here to acquire another piece during the season.

Tong played basically a fake lineup in PS2, which did not go well. He is just the latest in a long line of GMs to give some burn to Wendell Carter Jr. who, after TC, still stinks. KD got a full PS stint in Atlanta but Tyreke got to skip it. Jordo did not play Cory Joseph at all. Anthony Edwards got PS2 off in Washington. Finally center Myles Turner did > 4 blocks per 36 in PS1 for the Knicks, and slashed 50/45/92.

[SWAMP STEVEN]

This is cool

[jwoo]

the conclusion i reached is i need someone else to explain this to me

[Joe]

Grade: 550 RP