State of the League (On the Court)

[Josh]

hello hello

Did some data gathering to help us all see how the league has changed over time.

See below a table going all the way back to 1996 (excluding 1998, RIP) showing how much the game has changed in the last ~30 years.

I view our league history broken into 3 eras:

• Creation era (1996-2000) Slow pace and sloppy ball. Low scoring, low efficiency, low 3s, tons of turnovers.

• Introduction of 3 point line (2000-2018): In 2001 the league points per game jumped from 105 to 112 and stayed in that ballpark for the next 17 seasons. In this period, turnovers were very low, 3P attempts per game hovered from 16 to 17, while overall FG% stuck around 45%. Blocks spiked in the late aughts but came down to averages in the 2010s

• Modern era (2019-2025): Starting in 2018, FG%, 3PA, 3P%, TS% and ultimately points started increasing. The top 7 seasons of all those categories were in the past 7 years. This is an offense happy period, although turnovers have trended up along with the pace (but higher than average TO per FGA)

So far in 2026, scoring is a bit down compared to the past few years. FG% is at 45.1%, the lowest in the last 8 seasons. On top of that, TOPG are the highest in league history (and are high even adjusted for pace). Blocks are higher too

I think the league inflation in shooting is reflective of reality and balanced by more blocks and turnovers. I think it's a good thing that the efficiency is coming down this year. Interested in what @Jesse "I hate inflation" "I have no integrity" thinks

[Joe]

pretty interesting that blocks are coming back now after capping out in like 2008

[Josh]

added columns on the far right for possessions, turnovers as % of possessions, and points per possession. I estimated possessions by FGA + TOs + FTA x 0.475 - Rebounds x 25% (assuming 25% of rebounds are offensive). I found it interesting that pace has stayed consistent over the past 8 seasons, but this year TOs are up and efficiency is down.

[SourKittles]

Great post! Do you think that some of the statistical trends for 2026 could be due to altered GM preferences / styles, like a change in what people value? Or do you see this as the start of a new "sloppy" era?

[Josh]

could be! could also be driven by more people tanking and giving minutes to turnover-prone players. but i think league-wide player composition is the much more impactful factor

[pacers]

people tanking and giving minutes to turnover-prone players

kris dunn straight to jail

[GX.]

could be! could also be driven by more people tanking and giving minutes to turnover-prone players. but i think league-wide player composition is the much more impactful factor

feel like there are not a whole lot of tankers in general and guys like Poole and Dunn won’t make a significant impact league wide. Rather it’s a collection of those tanking beasts and very good players that are also turnover prone (Embiid, Sheppard, Shai) where the rest of their games “makes up” for the turnovers

[GX.]

Really cool analysis though

[bpankin]

Or do you see this as the start of a new "sloppy" era?

[SourKittles]

Or do you see this as the start of a new "sloppy" era?

Oh I’m in for this